MoF Expects Deficit of BGN 253.4 million on Monthly Basis for October
Based on the preliminary data and estimates, the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) balance on a cash basis as of October 2020 is expected to be positive, amounting to BGN 618 million (0.5% of the projected GDP). On a monthly basis, the CFP balance for October is expected to generate a deficit of BGN 253.4 million. Higher expenditures were generated this month in relation to some socio-economic measures aimed at minimising the crisis implications including payments under the 60/40 measure, a monthly pension allowance of BGN 50, payments for farmers, as well as other expenditures under the measures approved, which, along with the traditionally higher expenditures in autumn and winter, translates in a current excess of expenditures over revenues in October.
Key CFP parameters based on preliminary data and estimates:
As of October 2020, CFP revenues, grants and donations are expected to be BGN 36,312.3 million, or 81.8% of the revised annual estimates. Compared to the same period of 2020, tax and non-tax revenues under the Consolidated Fiscal Programme as of October 2020 have shrunk by BGN 410.9 million, while grant proceeds have risen by BGN 404.7 million. There has been a gradual improvement in the major taxes in the recent months, which gradually sets off the delay in the first months after the outbreak.
As of October 2020, the Consolidated Fiscal Programme expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, amount to BGN 35,694.3 million, which accounts for 74.5% of the revised annual estimates. For comparison, the CFP expenditures as of October 2019 amount to BGN 35,236.0 million. Comparing the expenditures with those in the same period of the previous year, one should take into account the impact in 2019 of the one-off expenditures incurred for the project for the acquisition of a new type of military aircraft for the Bulgarian Air Forces.
The part of Bulgaria’s contribution to the EU budget, as paid from the central budget as of 31.10.2020, amounts to BGN 990.2 million, which complies with the existing legislation in the area of EU own resources, i.e. Council Decision 2014/335/EU on the system of own resources of the European Union, Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 608/2014 of 26 May 2014 laying down implementing measures for the system of own resources of the European Union and Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 609/2014 of 26 May 2014 on the methods and procedure for making available the traditional, VAT and GNI-based own resources and on the measures to meet cash requirements, as amended by Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2016/804 of 17 May 2016.
The statistical data and the Information Bulletin on the Execution of the State Budget and the key Consolidated Fiscal Programme indicators based on the monthly data on cash execution of first-level spending units as of October 2020 will be published on the website of the Ministry of Finance at the end of November 2020.