The Ministry of Finance expects negative budget balance to the amount of BGN 352.8 million for May 2020
Based on the preliminary data and estimates, for the five months of 2020, the excess of revenues over expenditures under the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) is expected to amount to BGN 1,278.7 million (1.1 % of the forecast GDP). For comparison, the reported excess of revenues over expenditures for the same period of 2019 amounted to BGN 3,025.8 million (2.5 % of GDP), which means that, as compared to 2019, the budget balance has deteriorated by BGN 1.75 billion in nominal terms. Compared to the same period of 2019, as of May 2020, tax and non-tax revenues under the Consolidated Fiscal Programme contract by BGN 1,463.0 million, while proceeds from grants increase by BGN 360.2 million. The delay in the revenues is due, on the one hand, to the extension of deadlines under the Corporate Income Tax Law, the Personal Income Tax Law and the Local Taxes and Charges Law with the Law on the Measures and Actions in a State of Emergency which was declared by a decision of the National Assembly of 13 March 2020, and, on the other hand, to the negative implications on proceeds from most key taxes and social security and health insurance contributions as a result of the limitations in response to COVID-19 in Bulgaria and worldwide. The negative trend is expected to continue in the next few months.
Key CFP parameters on the basis of preliminary data and estimates:
As of May 2020, CFP revenues, grants and donations are expected to be BGN 17,616.8 million (39.7 % of the updated annual estimates). As compared to the first five months of 2019, CFP revenues report a slowdown in terms of all key types of taxes.
The Consolidated Fiscal Programme expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, as of May 2020 amount to BGN 16,338.1 million, which accounts for 34.1 % of the updated annual estimates. For comparison the expenditures under the CFP as of end-May 2019 amounted to BGN 15,693.8 million. As compared to the same period of the previous year, the nominal increase is mainly due to the higher staff costs, the social payments, etc.
The part of Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, paid from the central budget as of 31.05.2020, amounts to BGN 615.3 million, which complies with the current legislation in the area of EU own resources – Council Decision 2014/335/EU, Euratom on the system of own resources of the European Union, Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 608/2014 of 26 May 2014 laying down implementing measures for the system of own resources of the European Union, and Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 609/2014 of 26 May 2014 on the methods and procedure for making available the traditional, VAT and GNI-based own resources and on the measures to meet cash requirements as amended by Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 2016/804 of 17 May 2016.
The statistical data and the Information Bulletin on the execution of the state budget and the key indicators of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme based on data from the monthly reports on the cash performance of the budgets of the first-level spending units as of May 2020 will be published on the website of the Ministry of Finance at the end of June 2020.