The Ministry of Finance expects the budget balance for 2019 to improve as compared to the one laid down in updated estimates to the 2019 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria Law
Based on preliminary data and estimates, the budget balance of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme for 2019 is expected to be negative, amounting to BGN 1,142.6 million (0.96 % of the forecast GDP). Compared to the estimates to the Law amending and supplementing the 2019 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria Law, the budget balance reports an improvement by around BGN 1.3 billion in nominal terms.
The deficit reported for the year is due to the one-off expenditures related to the implementation of the investment project for the acquisition of a new type of multi-functional military aircraft for the Bulgarian air forces. According to the estimates to the updated medium-term budget forecast for the period 2020-2023, the budget balance is projected to be balanced and to remain at this level throughout the budget forecast horizon.
Key CFP parameters on the basis of preliminary data and estimates:
Revenues, grants and donations under CFP for 2019 are expected to be BGN 43,896.1 million, or 100,1 % of the annual estimates, with tax revenue performance being 102,1 %. As compared to 2018, CFP revenues have risen by BGN 4,245.2 million, with growth being registered in both tax and non-tax revenues, and grants and donations where the grants under the EU programmes and funds are mostly recorded.
In terms of revenues to the national budget, most significant is the increase in proceeds from taxes (by BGN 3.0 billion), with growth being reported for all major taxes and social security and health insurance contributions. Indirect taxes have risen by around BGN 1.4 billion compared to the previous year. A significant increase is also registered in revenues from social security and health insurance contributions, corporate taxes, etc.
The Consolidated Fiscal Programme expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, for 2019 amount to BGN 45,038.7 million, which accounts for 97.3 % of the annual estimates. For comparison, the expenditures under the CFP for 2018 amounted to BGN 39,515.7 million. The nominal increase in comparison to the previous year is due to the higher capital expenditures (due to the higher national budget expenditures, including those related to the implementation of the investment project for the acquisition of a new type of military aircraft for the Bulgarian air forces, as well as under the EU fund accounts), the staff costs (a 10% increase in the wage bill for the public sector and the next step of increasing the remunerations in the education sector), the higher social and health insurance payments (a baseline effect from the pension increase in July 2018, the pension indexation in July 2019 and an increase in the health insurance payments set out in the 2019 NHIF Budget Law), etc.
The part of Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, paid from the central budget as of 31.12.2019, amounts to BGN 1,193.1 million, which complies with the current legislation in the area of EU own resources – Council Decision 2014/335/EU, Euratom on the system of own resources of the European Union, Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 608/2014 of 26 May 2014 laying down implementing measures for the system of own resources of the European Union, and Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 609/2014 of 26 May 2014 on the methods and procedure for making available the traditional, VAT and GNI-based own resources and on the measures to meet cash requirements as amended by Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 2016/804 of 17 May 2016.
The statistical data and the Information Bulletin on the execution of the state budget and the key indicators of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme based on data from the monthly reports on the cash performance of the budgets of the first-level spending units for 2019 will be published on the website of the Ministry of Finance at the end of January 2020.