MF expects a surplus of BGN 1,498.5 million under the Consolidated Fiscal Programme for February 2019
Based on preliminary data and estimates the balance of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) on a cash basis as of February 2019 is expected to be positive, amounting to BGN 1,498.5 million (1.3 % of the forecast GDP).
Key CFP parameters on the basis of preliminary data and estimates:
Revenues and grants under CFP as of February 2019 are expected to be BGN 7,237,1 million, or 16,5 % of the annual estimates. As compared to February 2018, CFP revenues have risen by BGN 1,024.7 million, with growth being registered in both tax and non-tax revenues, and grants and donations where the grants under the EU programmes and funds are mostly recorded. Based on the estimates, the growth of tax revenues is BGN 212.1 million, of non-tax revenues – BGN 388.2 million, and of revenues from grants and donations – BGN 424.4 million. It should be noted that as regards non-tax revenues there is a baseline effect in the part of revenues to the budget of the Energy Security Fund due to the amendments to the Energy Law which have entered into force and changed the mechanism of collection of revenues to the Fund’s budget. For this reason the revenues to the Fund’s budget for the first two months of 2019 were higher than the revenues for the same period of 2018.
The Consolidated Fiscal Programme expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, for February 2019 amount to BGN 5,738.6 million, which accounts for 12.9 % of the annual estimates. For comparison, the expenditures under the CFP as of February 2018 amounted to BGN 5,460.1 million. As compared to the same period of the previous year, the nominal increase is mainly due to the higher amount of the contribution to the general budget of the EU, the higher staff costs, the higher social payments (a baseline effect from the increase of pensions as from July 2018), etc. As regards the staff costs as of February this year, most of the budget systems have not yet reflected the income policy for 2019. The delay is due to the technological time needed for the final meetings for the annual assessment of civil servants for 2018, which are used as a basis to apply the increase in individual salaries. The increase for January and February will be paid together with the increase for March 2019.
The part of Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, paid from the central budget as of 28.02.2019, amounts to BGN 371.8 million, which complies with the current legislation in the area of EU own resources – Council Decision 2014/335/EU, Euratom on the system of own resources of the European Union, Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 608/2014 of 26 May 2014 laying down implementing measures for the system of own resources of the European Union, and Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 609/2014 of 26 May 2014 on the methods and procedure for making available the traditional, VAT and GNI-based own resources and on the measures to meet cash requirements as amended by Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 2016/804 of 17 May 2016.
The statistical data and the Information Bulletin on the execution of the state budget and the key indicators of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme based on data from the monthly reports on the cash performance of the budgets of the first-level spending units as of February 2019 will be published on the website of the Ministry of Finance at the end of March 2019.