MF EXPECTS SURPLUS OF BGN 2,386.2 MILLION UNDER THE CONSOLIDATED FISCAL PROGRAMME AS OF SEPTEMBER 2017
Based on preliminary data and estimates the balance of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) on a cash basis as of September 2017 is expected to be positive, amounting to BGN 2,386.2 millionor 2.4% of forecast GDP. The national budget balance reports an improvement in structural terms as compared to the same period of 2016 mainly due to the growth of tax revenues (including social security and health insurance contributions), while the balance of EU fund accounts has deteriorated this year due to a baseline effect in 2016. The latter is related to the EU grants reimbursed to Bulgaria at the beginning of 2016 for expenditures incurred at the end of 2015 which witnessed the peak of project payments under the previous 2007 – 2013 programming period.
Key CFP parameters on the basis of preliminary data and estimates:
As of September 2017, CFP revenues and grants are expected to be BGN 26,132.1 million (73.7 % of the annual estimates). The performance of tax and non-tax revenues is expected to be 76.5% of the estimates for the year, which is a growth by BGN 1,750.1 million as compared to the same period of the previous year (7.5 %). Grant revenues as of end-September are lower than the same period of 2016, with execution as compared to the 2017 annual estimates expected to be 39.9%.
The Consolidated Fiscal Programme expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, as of September 2017 are expected to amount to BGN 23,746.0 million, which is 64.6 % of the annual estimates. The expenditures for the same period of the previous year were to the amount of BGN 22,289.6 million. The growth of expenditures as compared to end-September 2016 is mostly due to the higher social security and health insurance payments, a baseline effect on expenditures on pensions from their increases as from July 2016 and July 2017, expenditures on subsidies and higher personnel expenditures, including due to the growth of insurance payments related to the higher insurance contribution for the Pensions for Persons under Article 69 Fund which increased by 20 percentage points as compared to 2016.
The part of Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, paid from the central budget as of 30.09.2017, amounts to BGN 676.6 million, which complies with the current legislation in the area of EU own resources – Council Decision 2014/335/EU, Euratom on the system of own resources of the European Union, Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 608/2014 of 26 May 2014 laying down implementing measures for the system of own resources of the European Union, and Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 609/2014 of 26 May 2014 on the methods and procedure for making available the traditional, VAT and GNI-based own resources and on the measures to meet cash requirements as amended by Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 2016/804 of 17 May 2016.
The statistical data and the Information Bulletin on the execution of the state budget and the key indicators of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme based on data from the monthly reports on the cash performance of the budgets of the first-level spending units will be published on the website of the Ministry of Finance at the end of October 2017.