MINISTRY OF FINANCE EXPECTS SURPLUS OF BGN 2,156.8 MILLION UNDER THE CONSOLIDATED FISCAL PROGRAMME AS OF AUGUST 2017
Based on the preliminary data and estimates, the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) balance on a cash basis as of August 2017 is expected to be positive, amounting to BGN 2,156.8 million (2.2% of the projected GDP). The national budget balance reports an improvement in structural terms as compared to the same period of 2016 mainly due to the growth of tax revenues (including from social security and health insurance contributions), while the balance of EU fund accounts has deteriorated this year due to a baseline effect in 2016 related to the EU grants reimbursed to Bulgaria at the beginning of 2016 for expenditures incurred at the end of 2015 when was the peak of project payments under the previous 2007 - 2013 programming period.
Key CFP parameters based on preliminary data and estimates:
As of August 2017, CFP revenues and grants are expected to be BGN 23,312.7 million, or 65.8% of the annual estimates. The performance of tax and non-tax revenues is expected to be 68.1% of the estimates for the year, as these revenues, compared to the same period of the previous year, grow by BGN 1,525.1 million, or by 7.3%. As of end-August, grant revenues are lower than the same period of 2016, with execution as compared to the 2017 annual estimates expected to be 37.4%.
The Consolidated Fiscal Programme expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, are expected to amount to BGN 21,155.9 million as of August 2017, which accounts for 57.5% of the annual estimates. The expenditures for the same period of last year amount to BGN 19,698.1 million. The higher expenditures, as compared to end-August 2016, are mainly due to the higher amount of social security and health insurance payments, the baseline effect of pension expenditures since their increase in July 2016 and July 2017, the subsidy expenditures and the higher staff costs, including due to the increase in social security contribution expenditures linked to the higher contribution to the Pensions to Persons Pursuant to Article 69 Fund of the Social Insurance Code by 20 pps as against 2016.
The part of Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, as paid from the central budget as of August 2017, amounts to BGN 607.4 million, which complies with the existing legislation in the area of EU own resources, i.e. Council Decision 2014/335/EU on the system of own resources of the European Union, Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 608/2014 of 26 May 2014 laying down implementing measures for the system of own resources of the European Union and Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 609/2014 of 26 May 2014 on the methods and procedure for making available the traditional, VAT and GNI-based own resources and on the measures to meet cash requirements, as amended by Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2016/804 of 17 May 2016.
The statistics and the Information Bulletin on the Execution of the State Budget and of the Key Consolidated Fiscal Programme Indicators based on the monthly data on cash execution of the budgets of first-level spending units will be published on the website of the Ministry of Finance at the end of September 2017.