MF EXPECTS SURPLUS OF BGN 1,508.6 MILLION UNDER THE CONSOLIDATED FISCAL PROGRAMME FOR 2016
Based on preliminary data and estimates the balance of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) on a cash basis for 2016 is expected to be positive for the first time since 2008. The CFP surplus is expected to be approximately BGN 1,508.6 million (1.6% of forecast GDP). Thus, in addition to the saving of resources intended to finance the CFP deficit planned with the 2016 Annual Budget Law estimates (up to 2% of forecast GDP), the fiscal reserve at the end of 2016 also includes the resources from the budget surplus for the year. The achieved results give a strong signal for the pursued consistent policy aimed at ensuring sustainable fiscal position in the medium term.
Compared to the previous year, the relative share of GDP of the CFP budget balance has improved by 4.4 percentage points. The drivers for this improvement are, on the one hand, the higher revenues and, on the other hand, the lower utilization of expenditures.
Key CFP parameters on the basis of preliminary data and estimates:
For 2016, CFP revenues and grants are expected to be BGN 33,944.6 million (102.8% as compared to the annual estimate), registering a growth of BGN 1,745.1 million as against 2015. The growth as compared to the previous year is due to the higher tax and non-tax revenues which increased by BGN 2,494.1 million, while the EU grants are lower. However, it should be noted that the proceeds from grants are exceeding the annual estimates, the performance being 113.9% as compared to the plan.
In terms of revenues to the national budget, most significant is the increase in proceeds from taxes (by approximately BGN 2.1 billion), with growth being reported for all major taxes and social security and health insurance contributions. Indirect taxes have risen by around BGN 1.2 billion compared to the previous year, with VAT revenues only increasing by about BGN 0.9 billion (11.5 percent). A significant increase is also registered in revenues from excise duties, social security and health insurance contributions, personal income tax, corporation taxes, etc.
The Consolidated Fiscal Programme expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, for 2016 are expected to amount to BGN 32,436.0 million, which is 93.2% of the annual estimates. In structural terms, the performance of expenditures under EU fund accounts is expected to be lower than the annual plans by around BGN 2.0 billion, which is related to the lower absorption at the initial stage of the projects under the Operational Programmes and the Rural Development Programme for the new programming period.
The part of Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, as paid from the central budget for 2016, amounts to BGN 859.5 million, which complies with the existing legislation in the area of EU own resources, Council Decision 2007/436/EC, Euratom on the system of the Communities' own resources and Council Regulation No 1150/2000, as amended by Regulation No 2018/2004, Regulation No 105/2009 and Regulation No 1377/2014, implementing Decision 2007/436/EC.
The statistical data, the Information Bulletin on the execution of the state budget and the key indicators of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme based on data from the monthly reports on the cash performance of the budgets of the first-level spending units will be published on the website of the Ministry of Finance at the end of January 2017.