MF EXPECTS NOVEMBER TO END WITH A DEFICIT OF BGN 32.4 MILLION
Based on preliminary data and estimates the balance of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) on a cash basis as of November 2018 is expected to be positive, amounting to BGN 2,811.9 million (2.6 % of the forecast GDP). On a monthly basis, the deficit for November is expected to be BGN 32.4 million. In structural terms, the national budget balance is positive while the balance of EU fund accounts is negative mainly due to the higher expenditures this year under the Operational Programmes co-financed by the EU.
Key CFP parameters on the basis of preliminary data and estimates:
As of November 2018, CFP revenues and grants are expected to be BGN 35,801.8 million (93.7 % of the annual estimate), registering a growth by BGN 3,898.4 million as against the same period of 2017. The growth as compared to the previous year is mainly due to the higher tax and non-tax revenues which increased by BGN 3,451.4 million (11.3 %). Grant proceeds also increased, growing by BGN 447.0 million.
The Consolidated Fiscal Programme expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, for November 2018 amount to BGN 32,989.9 million, which accounts for 83.9 % of the annual estimates. For comparison, the expenditures under the CFP for the same period of 2017 amounted to BGN 29,517.6 million. The nominal growth is due both to the higher expenditures under the national budget and to the increase in expenditures under the EU funds accounts. The growth of expenditures under the national budget is mostly due to the higher health insurance and social payments (a baseline effect on expenditures on pensions from their increase as from July 2017 and the two-step increase of the minimum pension in 2017 – as from July and October, as well as the new increase of pensions as from July 2018), the higher staff costs mostly resulting from the increase in the remuneration of pedagogical staff within the secondary education, etc., while for EU funds accounts it is capital expenditures that mainly increase.
The part of Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, paid from the central budget as of 30.11.2018, amounts to BGN 994.2 million, which complies with the current legislation in the area of EU own resources – Council Decision 2014/335/EU, Euratom on the system of own resources of the European Union, Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 608/2014 of 26 May 2014 laying down implementing measures for the system of own resources of the European Union, and Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 609/2014 of 26 May 2014 on the methods and procedure for making available the traditional, VAT and GNI-based own resources and on the measures to meet cash requirements as amended by Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 2016/804 of 17 May 2016.
The statistical data and the Information Bulletin on the execution of the state budget and the key indicators of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme based on data from the monthly reports on the cash performance of the budgets of the first-level spending units as of November 2018 will be published on the website of the Ministry of Finance at the end of December 2018.